Have you ever had one of those "OH MY GOSH I KNOW WHO THE BAD GUY IS!" moments while watching your favorite show? I don't just mean the ones that get proved right or wrong within the hour of the episode, but the long term "Ah, ha" moments that seem to stem from practically nothing, a word, a glance, a tone. I get those a lot. In fact I believe I just posted one last night after my guess about that scene in Psych turned out to be true.

For some reason I just have this innate ability to really understand a story and it's characters and where they are going. Whether it's knowing without a doubt that Snape was a good guy and no traitor, or seeing that the good guy was not who he appeared to be miles before everyone else, I can usually spot it. I'm not gloating about it, it's just how I am. There have been those few moments when I have been wrong and I love it all the more. When I am right, which is often (and that fact tends to annoy my family because I always have to make my guesses out loud due to the fear that no one will believe that I knew it when it turns out to be true), I get a sense of validation that I am good at this. When I am wrong, which does happen, I find myself feeling happy as well. I like when a writer can twist me around because I want to be that writer. I want to surprise those readers and viewers out there who are as observant as me. That being said, I also like it when someone can guess where I am going because then I know that I am giving them that validation. In short, I love it whether I am wrong or right...I do, however, tend to like being right more.

Now, to the purpose of this post. Tonight I had one of those "Ah ha" moments. If you watch The Mentalist and you don't want my guesses to skew your own view of the show or to give anything away (in case I am right) then you may just want to stop reading now because I think I know who Red John is.

Let me start with the moment that triggered this as it was small, almost inconsequential (and for all I know the writers put it in there on purpose so that someone like me would pick up on that and head in the wrong direction with their theories...they may want to surprise me later by showing me that I'm wrong, but I feel like I am right). The moment was so small you could almost call it a micro expression (I've been watching too much Lie To Me lately).It was at the end of tonight's episode, "Ring Around the Rosie," when Jane is talking to their new (very young and good looking) boss. For most of the episode my mind was set on figuring out where I'd seen the guest star/bad guy in before but once I'd figured that out (he was Dexter's brother), my mind was freed up to see other things.

Jane was sitting, a large grin on his face, as the boss (I believe his name was Luther) was talking about his observations on Jane, comparing him to a personality/behavioral test (Psycopathy test I think is what it's called) they had secretly managed to take on their bad guy earlier in the episode. When he is done is tells Jane: "Congratulations Jane, according to the score you are a clinical psychopath." They seem to be friendly during this exchange and then Luther says, "Now I know what I'm dealing with, so I'll adjust accordingly." He has an odd sort of smile (it barely reaches his eyes) when he says this and at first I didn't think anything of it, but then he turns and leaves and as he passes Lisbon, his back to both of them, there is this really odd look on his face. I can't quite explain it. It could be construed as his own emotions kind of mixed up in Jane, like he's not so sure how working with him will go but he's kind of liking him at the same time...but I don't think that's it. Maybe it's because I've been watching too much Lie To Me lately and I'm reading too much into it, but I feel like that look on his face along with the look he had when saying "I'll adjust accordingly" is the look you would find on a cat who has just fooled a mouse into thinking he is not a cat or a wolf who has cleverly disguised himself in sheep's clothing. He walks with a strange, almost triumphant confidence down the hall too which struck me as odd. Then the fact that Jane then says to Lisbon "I like our new boss, I think we'll work very well together." struck me as further proof. Though it is meant to rid me of doubt about the new boss and make me trust him and like him as Jane does, I can't quite believe it. Knowing how stories go, how writers are, and how this show and this type of show is...I think Jane will find that he is becoming friends with the very man he wishes to kill. Take the phrase Luther spoke earlier and the expressions that screamed at me (in fact the revelation I had made my stomach do flips, I felt really strongly that it was true and I hope it is because it is EXACTLY what I would have done as a writer with this story) and put it in the context of Luther as Red John. "Now I know what I'm dealing with, so I'll adjust accordingly." I am not so sure he was talking about work.


What I am saying here, is I think Luther is Red John. I know my evidence is small and, again, inconsequential, but for some reason that look, that look in the hallway...it said it all. That one look made me look back at his words to Jane, at his face. I feel it, I feel the story moving in that direction. I don't know if I'm right, but I feel convinced of it now. If I were to choose anyone to be Red John at this moment in the show, it would be him. It's the perfect way to compromise Jane, to rid him of his arrogance, to make him feel helpless and tricked when he finally does find out who Red John really is. The writers have set this up perfectly and the story could be great and gut wrenching. Red John isn't some stranger he has never met before like the man he killed in the last episode of season 3. When he finally is revealed, Red John will be someone Jane knows, someone he never expected. Red John will have weaved his way into Jane's life so that by the time he reveals himself...Jane will be trapped so tight that breaking free will become far more painful than it ever would have been before. The worst enemy often turns out to be the best friend. He has already used others to try and get into Jane's life...now Red John will step up and do things himself. The game has changed, most of the world thinks he is dead aside from Jane. Now he must step it up and get involved personally. This is how it works, it's how a really good story must unfold. Though other candidates may show up later in the season, I am inclined to think he will be there early on, in fact that he is there now. I am going to stick with this theory until something comes up to prove otherwise (though I will always evaluate all "proof" carefully before changing  my theory) but I am not sure that I can be convinced otherwise. This is my theory.

Luther is Red John.